The White House is reportedly preparing to bring together executives from the crypto and prediction-market industries on August 19, even as the chances of the U.S. Congress passing the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act this year have fallen sharply.
Polymarket traders currently assign the legislation roughly a 21% probability of becoming law in 2026, underscoring the growing uncertainty surrounding the bill.
The reported White House meeting comes at a critical moment for U.S. crypto policy. The Senate has yet to vote on the legislation, lawmakers are currently on their August recess, and several major disputes remain unresolved.
White House to Meet Crypto and Prediction-Market Executives
Politico reported on August 13 that the White House is expected to host executives from the cryptocurrency and prediction-market industries on August 19, citing people familiar with the planned meeting.
The White House has not publicly released a formal agenda or confirmed the list of participants.
Executives from traditional financial institutions could also attend, while it remains unclear whether President Donald Trump will personally participate.
The meeting would bring industry representatives and administration officials together at a time when lawmakers remain away from Washington and negotiations over the CLARITY Act have stalled.
The gathering could provide an opportunity to discuss some of the industry’s most contentious regulatory issues, including crypto market structure, stablecoins, prediction markets and the division of authority between federal regulators.
However, the meeting itself would not change the legislative status of the CLARITY Act.
What the CLARITY Act Would Change
The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act is designed to establish a broader federal regulatory framework for digital assets.
One of its central objectives is to clarify the respective responsibilities of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Under the proposed framework, digital commodities and their spot markets would generally fall under the CFTC, while assets that qualify as securities would remain under SEC oversight.
The legislation would also establish rules covering areas such as digital asset exchanges, brokers, dealers and other market participants.
For crypto companies, the distinction is significant because the two agencies operate under different regulatory frameworks.
The House passed its version of the legislation in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote, with 78 Democrats joining Republicans in support.
The Senate Banking Committee subsequently advanced its version by a 15-9 vote in May 2026.
But the bill has yet to receive a full Senate floor vote.
Senate Recess Has Compressed the Timeline
Senate Majority Leader John Thune previously indicated that lawmakers did not have enough time to complete negotiations, debate and amendments before leaving Washington for the August recess.
The Senate is scheduled to return on September 14, leaving lawmakers with a relatively narrow window to advance the legislation before other political priorities begin competing for floor time.
Government funding negotiations and the approaching midterm election calendar could further complicate efforts to move a major crypto market-structure bill through Congress.
That compressed timeline is one reason market participants have become increasingly pessimistic about passage this year.
Ethics Rules Remain a Major Obstacle
One of the most politically sensitive disputes involves crypto holdings and financial interests involving senior government officials.
Politico reported that Senate negotiators are waiting on a bipartisan ethics proposal developed by Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego.
The discussions focus on restrictions surrounding crypto-related financial activity involving the president, vice president, members of Congress and other senior government officials.
The White House had reportedly not approved the proposed package before senators left Washington.
The issue has become particularly important for Democrats, who have pushed for stricter safeguards around potential conflicts of interest involving government officials and cryptocurrency businesses.
Without agreement on the ethics provisions, securing the bipartisan support necessary to move the broader legislation could become more difficult.
Stablecoin Rewards Create Another Major Dispute
Stablecoin regulation represents another significant point of disagreement.
Traditional banking organizations argue that certain rewards offered to stablecoin users could effectively function like interest payments and encourage customers to move deposits away from banks.
Crypto companies, meanwhile, want stablecoin platforms to retain the ability to provide incentives tied to legitimate customer activity.
In July, major banking organizations urged Senate leaders to modify Section 404 of the CLARITY Act.
The American Bankers Association, Independent Community Bankers of America and 76 state banking associations argued that the legislation should more clearly prevent stablecoin rewards from becoming substitutes for bank deposit interest.
The banking groups argue that deposits provide funding for mortgages, agricultural lending and small-business credit.
Under current draft language, payment stablecoins would generally be prohibited from paying interest or yield on idle balances, while certain rewards connected to transactions or other activities could remain permissible.
That distinction has become a major source of disagreement between banking and cryptocurrency representatives.
DeFi and Financial Crime Controls Are Also Under Negotiation
Stablecoin rewards and ethics provisions are not the only unresolved issues.
Negotiators also continue to debate provisions involving decentralized finance and financial crime controls.
These issues are particularly complicated because decentralized protocols do not always fit traditional regulatory structures built around identifiable companies and financial intermediaries.
How lawmakers ultimately define the responsibilities of developers, protocol operators, governance organizations and other participants could have significant consequences for the future of U.S. DeFi.
The final language could therefore influence not only centralized crypto businesses but also decentralized protocols operating through smart contracts and blockchain networks.
Polymarket Traders Give the Bill Only a 21% Chance
The uncertainty surrounding the legislation is reflected in prediction-market pricing.
Polymarket traders currently assign the CLARITY Act approximately a 21% chance of becoming law during 2026, according to the platform’s August 14 market.
The probability had increased from roughly 17% the previous day following reports of the planned White House meeting.
But the market remains dramatically below its levels earlier in the year.
The contract reportedly reached a peak probability of approximately 82% in February before falling sharply as Senate negotiations stalled.
The market has accumulated approximately $7 million in trading volume.
Importantly, prediction-market prices represent the collective expectations of traders, not an official government forecast.
The contract resolves positively only if the legislation is enacted before January 1, 2027.
A White House Meeting Does Not Guarantee Passage
The planned meeting could generate momentum around the legislation, but it does not directly solve the procedural obstacles facing the bill.
The Senate needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and advance the legislation.
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, meaning the bill would require substantial Democratic support if it is to clear the cloture threshold.
Even if negotiators reach agreement on the outstanding provisions, the legislative process would still have several stages remaining.
The Senate would need to pass its version.
The House would then have to approve the Senate language or the two chambers would need to reconcile their differences.
Only after Congress agrees on a final version could the legislation be sent to President Trump for his signature.
CFTC Crypto Meeting Comes Shortly After
The White House gathering is also expected to take place just one day before the CFTC holds the inaugural meeting of its Innovation Advisory Committee.
The CFTC has scheduled the meeting for August 20 from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern time in Washington.
According to the agency’s agenda, committee members will discuss several emerging areas, including:
- Cryptocurrency regulation
- Artificial intelligence
- Prediction markets
- Digital asset market structure
The meeting will be conducted with committee members attending in person, while members of the public will be able to watch remotely.
The CFTC has not indicated that the meeting will result in an immediate regulatory decision or that committee members will vote on a specific rule.
The advisory committee can provide recommendations to the CFTC but does not have independent authority to create or enforce regulations.
Why the CFTC Matters to the CLARITY Act
The CFTC would play a substantially larger role in the digital asset market if the CLARITY Act becomes law.
The proposed legislation would give the agency greater authority over spot markets for digital commodities, while the CFTC already regulates derivatives such as futures and options linked to commodities and digital assets.
Bitcoin and potentially other digital assets classified as commodities could therefore fall more directly under the CFTC’s regulatory framework.
That would represent a significant change from the current environment, where regulatory jurisdiction remains contested across parts of the crypto industry.
What Happens Next
The immediate focus will be on the August 19 White House meeting and whether it produces meaningful movement on the issues preventing the CLARITY Act from advancing.
The Senate’s return on September 14 will begin a critical period for the legislation.
Three developments will be particularly important:
White House negotiations: Whether administration officials can help bridge disagreements between crypto companies, banks, prediction-market operators and lawmakers.
Senate negotiations: Whether Democrats and Republicans can reach compromises on ethics, stablecoin rewards, DeFi and financial crime provisions.
CFTC policy direction: Whether the agency’s Innovation Advisory Committee provides recommendations that reinforce the proposed expansion of CFTC authority.
For now, the 21% Polymarket probability reflects the difficult road ahead rather than a definitive prediction of failure.
The White House meeting could provide new momentum, but turning that momentum into law will require bipartisan agreement, a 60-vote Senate threshold and ultimately coordination between the Senate and House.
With lawmakers returning in September and the midterm election calendar approaching, the window for passing comprehensive U.S. crypto market-structure legislation in 2026 is becoming increasingly narrow.
