The 2026 FIFA World Cup generated approximately $20 billion in prediction market trading volume, with users linked to the United States and China accounting for the largest country-level flows, according to new research from Chainalysis.
More than 400,000 onchain wallets participated in World Cup-related markets, demonstrating how prediction platforms have expanded beyond politics and cryptocurrency into major global sporting events.
World Cup contracts became particularly dominant during the tournament, representing approximately 63% of overall prediction market activity over the period analyzed.
World Cup Becomes a Major Prediction Market Event
Chainalysis tracked World Cup-related prediction activity beginning in January 2026, several months before the tournament started.
Even before kickoff, World Cup markets were generating close to $50 million in daily trading volume.
Activity accelerated dramatically when the tournament began on June 11, with daily volumes climbing to approximately $250 million.
The biggest surge came during the final between Spain and Argentina. More than $300 million in wagers were reportedly placed around the championship match.
The figures illustrate how major sporting events are emerging as powerful liquidity drivers for blockchain-based prediction markets.
Novelty Markets Attract Millions in Trading
Activity was not limited to traditional questions about match winners or tournament outcomes.
Prediction platforms also offered markets covering unusual events surrounding individual players and matches.
One market asking whether Cristiano Ronaldo would cry following his final World Cup campaign reportedly generated approximately $49 million in trading volume.
The popularity of such markets demonstrates how prediction platforms can turn almost any verifiable real-world outcome into a tradable event.
This flexibility differentiates prediction markets from conventional sportsbooks, where available betting products are generally determined by centralized operators.
More Than Half of Participants Reportedly Finished in Profit
Chainalysis found that approximately 55% of participating wallets finished the tournament profitably.
Experienced prediction market participants appeared particularly successful. Around 79% of profitable participants were classified as experienced users of prediction platforms.
The results suggest that familiarity with market pricing, liquidity and probability-based trading may have provided an advantage over users entering prediction markets primarily for the World Cup.
However, wallet-level profitability does not necessarily capture every user’s complete financial position or offchain activity.
US and China Generate Largest Country-Level Flows
Chainalysis also analyzed the geographic distribution of World Cup prediction market activity between June 11 and July 19.
The United States and China generated the largest attributable transaction volumes, according to the firm’s geographic analysis.
Canada, Thailand and the United Kingdom were also among the largest contributors.
Significant activity was additionally observed across Australia, Brazil, Russia and India, highlighting the international reach of blockchain-based event markets.
In contrast, attributable transaction volumes across much of Africa remained comparatively limited.
Less Than 1% of Betting Wallets Showed Illicit Transaction Histories
The rapid growth in prediction market activity also brought compliance concerns.
Chainalysis identified approximately 3,700 participating wallets with previous exposure to potentially illicit transactions.
That represented less than 1% of the more than 400,000 wallets participating in World Cup prediction markets.
According to the analysis, at least $5.4 million flowed from Huobi/HTX into wallets participating in World Cup markets.
Chainalysis also identified approximately $2 million originating from wallets associated with scams.
These findings do not necessarily mean that every subsequent prediction market transaction involving those wallets was itself illicit, but they demonstrate the compliance challenges created when open blockchain markets interact with global capital flows.
FIFA’s Own Onchain Experiment Shows Limited Illicit Exposure
Alongside independent prediction markets, FIFA continued expanding its own blockchain initiatives.
Chainalysis identified a major FIFA Collect wallet operating on Avalanche that received approximately $24 million from NFT collectors between May 2025 and the end of the tournament.
Unlike some prediction market wallets, FIFA’s blockchain ecosystem reportedly showed negligible exposure to illicit funds.
Chainalysis suggested that stronger identity verification and compliance controls could have contributed to the difference.
Onchain transaction analysis also indicated that FIFA generated at least $6 million from secondary-market activity associated with its digital collectibles ecosystem.
Prediction Markets Move Further Into Mainstream Sports
The World Cup’s estimated $20 billion in prediction market volume demonstrates how quickly event-based trading is expanding into mainstream entertainment and sports.
Prediction platforms increasingly allow users to trade expectations around everything from elections and economic data to sports results and cultural events.
The 2026 World Cup provided an unusually large test of that model, combining a global audience with continuously changing probabilities and thousands of potential outcomes.
With 400,000-plus wallets and billions of dollars in activity, the tournament suggests that prediction markets are evolving from a crypto-native niche into a broader financial layer for trading real-world events.
At the same time, the presence of wallets with illicit transaction histories highlights a challenge that will become increasingly important as the sector grows: how open, permissionless prediction infrastructure can scale globally while meeting increasingly demanding compliance and market-integrity requirements.
