Bitcoin’s sharp recovery has prompted Standard Chartered to reassess its previously cautious outlook. The cryptocurrency has climbed roughly 24% in the past week to around $76,844, leading the bank’s global head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, to warn that its $100,000 year-end forecast may prove too conservative.
Kendrick now sees a potential path for Bitcoin to revisit its previous record near $126,000 before the end of 2026, although Standard Chartered has not officially replaced its $100,000 target with a new $126,000 forecast.
Short Liquidations Fuel Bitcoin’s Recovery
Kendrick attributed much of Bitcoin’s latest rally to short liquidations, as traders betting on further declines were forced to buy BTC to close losing positions.
Bitcoin had spent much of the previous two months trading between approximately $60,000 and $65,000. The subsequent breakout has pushed the asset significantly higher, with Bitcoin reaching about $76,844 at the time of the report.
Kendrick also pointed to relatively low open interest across the market. Lower positioning could leave room for investors to rebuild leveraged positions as confidence improves, potentially providing additional buying pressure.
However, increasing leverage can also introduce greater downside risk if the rally reverses sharply.
“For the first time this year there is now a risk my end year forecast of $100k is too low,” Kendrick wrote.
$126,000 Could Become the Next Major Target
Kendrick believes Bitcoin could challenge its previous all-time high of roughly $126,000 later this year, particularly if the current recovery remains intact after Oct. 6.
That date is significant because it falls close to the period when Bitcoin reached its 2025 market peak before entering a prolonged downturn.
Standard Chartered has not formally changed its $100,000 year-end forecast. Instead, Kendrick’s latest comments suggest that the previous record could become a realistic upside target if momentum continues.
The bank has maintained its $100,000 forecast through several periods of weakness. Earlier in the year, Standard Chartered had even warned that Bitcoin could fall toward $50,000 before recovering, but the cryptocurrency ultimately found buyers in the upper-$50,000 range.
Bitcoin has since gained more than $17,000 from its June low.
Bitcoin ETF Demand Is Recovering
Another important factor for Kendrick is the recovery in US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.
Institutional demand had weakened earlier in the year, contributing to pressure on Bitcoin. More recently, however, ETF flows have started to improve, providing a potential source of sustained spot demand beyond short-covering.
ETF inflows also strengthened during Bitcoin’s July recovery, when US-listed spot Bitcoin funds ended a prolonged period of outflows and began recording consecutive positive sessions.
The latest price advance has taken Bitcoin well beyond the $65,000 and $70,000 resistance zones that repeatedly limited its earlier recovery.
If ETF demand continues strengthening while speculative positioning remains relatively contained, Kendrick believes the combination could support another leg higher.
Standard Chartered Previously Cut Its Forecast
Standard Chartered’s current outlook represents a significant change from the bank’s position earlier this year.
In February, Kendrick reduced the bank’s Bitcoin year-end target from $150,000 to $100,000, citing factors including ETF outflows, weaker macroeconomic conditions, reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and changes in investor positioning.
At the time, Kendrick expected Bitcoin could potentially fall toward $50,000 before recovering.
That downside scenario did not fully materialize. Bitcoin instead bottomed in the upper-$50,000 range before beginning its subsequent recovery.
Standard Chartered reaffirmed its $100,000 forecast several times during the summer, even as Bitcoin repeatedly struggled to sustain moves above $65,000.
Bitcoin Has Broken Through Key Resistance
The latest rally has significantly changed Bitcoin’s technical picture.
During July, BTC repeatedly encountered resistance around $65,000, with profit-taking and whale selling limiting several attempts to break higher.
Bitcoin has now moved decisively beyond that zone and above $70,000, with the cryptocurrency trading near $76,844 at the time of the report.
Other market observers have also become increasingly optimistic. Some analysts have suggested that Bitcoin may have already established a cycle bottom, while others are watching the monthly close for confirmation.
$100K Forecast Could Be Conservative
Standard Chartered’s official forecast remains $100,000 for year-end 2026, but Kendrick’s latest assessment suggests the bank may eventually need to revise that target upward.
A sustained combination of ETF inflows, short liquidations, improving liquidity and relatively low market positioning could give Bitcoin the momentum required to challenge its previous record.
For now, the $126,000 level remains a potential upside scenario rather than a formal Standard Chartered price target. The key test will be whether Bitcoin can maintain its recent breakout and convert short-covering momentum into sustained spot demand.
