Onchain analytics firm Glassnode says Bitcoin investors who purchased BTC near $107,000 could be providing one of the earliest signals of where the next bear market may eventually bottom.
According to the firm’s latest analysis, a key onchain metric tracking realized losses among long-term holders has historically marked the transition from capitulation to recovery, suggesting the market may already be laying the groundwork for the next major cycle.
Realized losses have historically marked market bottoms
Glassnode’s lead research analyst, known by the pseudonym Cryptovizart, highlighted the behavior of investors who have held Bitcoin for one to two years.
This group largely accumulated BTC between July 2024 and July 2025, a period during which Bitcoin climbed from approximately $62,800 to around $107,000.
As Bitcoin later declined from its highs, many of these investors found themselves holding positions at a loss. Historically, this cohort tends to capitulate gradually during prolonged market weakness, increasing realized losses as confidence deteriorates.
According to Glassnode, this phase of heavy loss realization has repeatedly coincided with the final stages of previous Bitcoin bear markets.
Cooling sell pressure could signal recovery
The firm tracks the 30-day moving average of realized losses among these one-to-two-year holders.
Recent data shows realized losses briefly exceeded $75 million before beginning to decline, indicating that selling pressure from this group may be easing.
Glassnode notes that previous market cycles have often reached durable bottoms only after this cohort exhausted its selling activity.
If the current trend continues, the rollover in realized losses could represent an early indication that the most aggressive distribution phase has passed.
While the signal does not guarantee an immediate market reversal, analysts believe it is one of the more reliable onchain indicators to monitor during extended bear markets.
$69,000 emerges as Bitcoin’s next key battleground
Beyond investor behavior, Glassnode also highlighted $69,000 as one of Bitcoin’s most important technical and psychological price levels.
The level closely aligns with the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders (STHs), meaning many recent buyers would return to breakeven if Bitcoin revisits that price.
It also coincides with Bitcoin’s previous all-time high from the 2021 bull market, making it a historically significant resistance zone.
Analysts believe the market’s reaction around this level could shape Bitcoin’s medium-term trend.
A decisive breakout above $69,000 would suggest strengthening bullish momentum and could open the door for a broader recovery. Conversely, failure to reclaim the level could reinforce the existing trading range and delay the next sustained uptrend.
Multiple indicators point to a potential turning point
Glassnode’s outlook comes as several onchain and technical indicators begin showing characteristics historically associated with major market reversals.
Among them are improving realized-loss trends and long-term stochastic RSI readings, both of which have previously appeared near important Bitcoin cycle lows.
Although analysts caution that no single metric can accurately predict future price movements, the convergence of multiple historical signals suggests investors should closely monitor onchain data as Bitcoin continues navigating the current market cycle.
For now, Glassnode believes the behavior of long-term holders and the market’s response around $69,000 will provide important clues about where the next major Bitcoin trend is headed.
