Galaxy Digital has sharply reduced its estimate for the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law in 2026, lowering the probability from 50% to just 10%.
The firm cited unresolved disagreements over government ethics rules, stablecoin rewards and protections for developers, along with a limited legislative window when the Senate returns from its August recess.
Senate faces a narrow window
Galaxy head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said lawmakers will have only around two to three weeks to advance the legislation after returning to Washington on Sept. 14.
Thorn warned that unless the Senate immediately takes up the initial motion to proceed, passing the bill would require the CLARITY Act to consume “basically the entire working session.”
Even if the procedural hurdle is cleared, senators would still need to resolve several contentious provisions before a final vote.
Key disagreements include restrictions on crypto-related activities by government officials, stablecoin yield provisions and protections for developers operating decentralized networks.
Stablecoin yield remains a major obstacle
The CLARITY Act is designed to establish a comprehensive federal framework for digital assets, including clearer divisions of responsibility between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
However, the bill has faced resistance from Democrats and major banking organizations over provisions governing stablecoins.
Banks have argued that allowing crypto companies to offer rewards or incentives linked to stablecoin balances could create competition with traditional deposits without subjecting those firms to comparable regulatory requirements.
The disagreement has become one of the most difficult issues for Senate negotiators to resolve.
Galaxy repeatedly lowers its forecast
Galaxy’s latest 10% estimate represents a dramatic decline from its earlier projections.
The firm initially placed the bill’s 2026 passage odds at 75% on May 22, before reducing them to 60% on June 6 and then to 50% on June 26.
The latest reduction reflects both the unresolved political disputes and the shrinking amount of time available for lawmakers to reach a compromise.
The Senate Banking Committee advanced the legislation in May, but committee approval was not enough to guarantee a floor vote or passage.
Industry continues to push for passage
Despite the political obstacles, the crypto industry continues to support the legislation.
More than 200 crypto companies and industry organizations urged the Senate in June to advance the CLARITY Act, arguing that clear federal rules would reduce regulatory uncertainty and provide greater certainty for businesses operating in the United States.
The legislation remains one of the industry’s most important attempts to establish a comprehensive digital-asset market structure.
For now, however, Galaxy’s revised 10% probability highlights just how difficult it may be for the bill to clear the Senate before the end of 2026. The next major test will come when lawmakers return on Sept. 14, with the procedural timeline leaving little room for further delays.
