Fidelity Digital Assets remains cautious about Bitcoin’s recent recovery, saying August’s powerful gains do not yet prove that the cryptocurrency has emerged from its bear market. Research chief Chris Kuiper says the market may have already bottomed in July, but a new low later in 2026 remains possible.
- Fidelity says Bitcoin’s recent rally does not confirm the end of the bear market.
- Chris Kuiper sees both a July bottom and a potential November 2026 low as possible.
- Bitcoin is trading around $81,000 after gaining roughly 30% over the past month.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $731 million in net inflows on Sept. 3.
- Fidelity highlights stablecoins, tokenized assets and US crypto legislation as potential market catalysts.
Strong Rally, But No Confirmation of a Bottom
Fidelity Digital Assets maintained a cautious stance in its fourth-quarter cryptocurrency outlook, despite Bitcoin delivering its strongest monthly performance since November 2024.
Bitcoin gained more than 25% during a particularly strong week in late August. Other major cryptocurrencies also rallied, with Ether advancing 34.1% and Solana gaining 28% over the same period.
However, Fidelity research executive Chris Kuiper stressed that the move higher does not provide enough evidence to declare the bear market finished.
According to Fidelity’s assessment, Bitcoin could have established its cycle low in July. Another possibility is that the cryptocurrency falls again and records a fresh bottom in November or sometime afterward.
That uncertainty is partly connected to Bitcoin’s historical market cycles. The previous major bear-market low occurred in November 2022. If a roughly four-year pattern were to repeat, November 2026 could become another important bottoming period.
Fidelity, however, warned against treating the historical cycle as a precise forecasting tool. Previous cycles have varied in length, meaning the four-year pattern cannot reliably predict when the next market bottom will occur.
Bitcoin Reclaims $80K as ETF Demand Returns
Bitcoin has recovered sharply from the weakness seen during June and July.
The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $81,000, after briefly reaching approximately $82,000. That puts Bitcoin roughly 30% above the sub-$65,000 range recorded during parts of the summer.
The recovery has also been supported by renewed demand for US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs.
On Sept. 3, the funds recorded approximately $731 million in combined net inflows, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for roughly $454 million of the total.
Ether ETFs also attracted around $141 million during the same session.
The return of institutional flows provides a positive signal for the market, but Fidelity’s analysis suggests that strong ETF demand alone is not enough to establish that a durable new bull market has begun.
Bitcoin also remains below its previous record near $126,080, leaving considerable distance between the current price and the cycle high.
Fidelity Identifies Several Potential Catalysts
Fidelity’s outlook points beyond Bitcoin’s price action and identifies several developments that could influence the next phase of the digital-asset market.
Stablecoin activity is one of the areas showing particularly strong growth. Fidelity said stablecoin transaction volume has reached approximately 2.3 times Visa’s volume, highlighting the increasing role of blockchain-based dollar instruments in digital payments and settlement.
The report also pointed to the rapid expansion of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). Fidelity said RWA tokenization has grown more rapidly in 2026 than during any previous year, suggesting that blockchain adoption is increasingly extending into traditional financial assets.
Regulation is another major factor.
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which remains under consideration in the US Senate, could provide greater certainty around the regulatory treatment of digital assets if lawmakers ultimately approve it.
Fidelity also identified developments at the Securities and Exchange Commission as an important part of the evolving US crypto regulatory environment.
September Senate Vote Becomes a Key Test
Kuiper specifically highlighted the upcoming Senate action on the CLARITY Act.
The legislation is expected to face a cloture vote on Sept. 15, which would determine whether the bill can move forward toward broader Senate consideration.
Fidelity views potential passage as a development that could improve regulatory clarity and encourage continued investment and innovation within the US digital-asset industry.
However, political uncertainty remains significant. Prediction-market pricing cited in the report had placed the probability of the legislation passing in 2026 at only around 13% at the end of August.
The vote therefore represents an important near-term test for the industry’s regulatory outlook.
Volatility Pattern Offers a Possible Bullish Signal
Fidelity also identified a technical pattern that could support the argument that Bitcoin is approaching the end of its bearish phase.
Bitcoin spent much of June through August trading within a relatively narrow, low-volatility range before experiencing a sharp upward expansion in late August.
Fidelity noted that similar transitions from prolonged low volatility into strong price expansion have historically appeared around the later stages of some bear markets.
The firm also observed that underlying network fundamentals remained relatively resilient during the period when prices were weaker.
Still, Fidelity stopped short of treating these signals as confirmation of a market bottom.
$82K–$83K Remains an Important Threshold
Other market analysts are also looking for confirmation that Bitcoin’s summer low was the cycle bottom.
Galaxy Research previously suggested that Bitcoin needed to achieve a weekly close above its 50-week moving average, which was around $82,470 at the time, before the June 30 low could be considered a confirmed bottom.
Bitcoin’s latest move toward $82,000 brought it close to that level but did not yet provide the decisive weekly close analysts were looking for.
This leaves the market at an important crossroads.
A sustained move above the relevant technical levels, combined with continued ETF inflows and stronger institutional demand, could strengthen the case for a new bullish phase. Conversely, a rejection followed by renewed selling could keep the possibility of another low later in 2026 alive.
For now, Fidelity is keeping both scenarios on the table: Bitcoin may have already bottomed, but the firm is not yet ready to rule out another decline potentially around November 2026.
