Bitcoin’s largest holders are showing signs of caution as on-chain data points to slowing demand and a weakening accumulation trend, according to blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
A recent CryptoQuant report reveals that wallet groups holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC — often considered Bitcoin whales — have shifted from accumulation to net distribution. Annual balance growth for this cohort has turned negative, marking the sharpest contraction seen so far this year.
The report notes that monthly balance growth among whales has remained largely flat since February, suggesting that many large investors are no longer aggressively buying. Instead, their behavior is beginning to resemble patterns observed during the 2022 bear market, when accumulation gradually gave way to prolonged selling pressure.
Institutional Demand Also Losing Momentum
Another important group being monitored is the so-called “dolphins” — holders with between 100 and 1,000 BTC. This category includes many exchange-traded funds, institutional investors, and corporate treasury accounts.
While dolphin holdings are still growing on an annual basis, the pace of growth has slowed considerably. Monthly balance expansion has nearly stalled, and CryptoQuant observed a series of lower highs in their holdings since September 2025.
Historically, periods where both whales and dolphins reduce accumulation have often preceded extended periods of market weakness. Together, these investor groups represent one of the strongest sources of structural demand within the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Long-Term Holders Reach Record Levels
Despite weakening demand from major holders, long-term Bitcoin ownership continues to hit new highs.
CryptoQuant reported that long-term holder supply has reached a record 15.8 million BTC. While this might appear bullish on the surface, analysts interpret it differently.
A growing concentration of coins in long-term wallets may indicate a lack of new market participants entering the ecosystem. In other words, existing holders are keeping their Bitcoin, but fresh demand is not arriving at a pace sufficient to drive prices higher.
Large Portion of Supply Currently Underwater
HashKey Group researcher Tim Sun highlighted another concern facing the market.
According to his analysis, nearly half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply recently approached unrealized losses, a level not seen since the bottom of the 2022 bear market.
Based on on-chain realized price metrics, Sun believes Bitcoin’s worst-case bottom could potentially fall into the $40,000 to $45,000 range if market conditions deteriorate significantly.
However, he considers a more realistic downside target to be between $55,000 and $60,000, assuming geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran do not escalate further and the Federal Reserve avoids additional interest rate hikes.
Sun emphasized that any meaningful recovery will likely depend on improving liquidity conditions and eventual monetary easing from central banks.
Market Sentiment Remains Divided
Crypto analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin continues to trade within a broad range, creating a challenging environment for investors.
According to the analyst, market sentiment swings rapidly between optimism and pessimism. Traders become increasingly bullish whenever Bitcoin approaches the upper end of its trading range, only for fear and uncertainty to return as prices move toward support levels.
At current prices near $73,700, approximately 40% of the total Bitcoin supply is being held at a loss, meaning those coins were purchased at higher prices.
This creates additional selling pressure, as many investors may be tempted to exit positions during future rallies in order to recover losses.
Outlook
While Bitcoin continues to hold above major support levels, on-chain data suggests that demand from large investors is weakening at a time when macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks remain elevated.
Until stronger institutional accumulation returns and new capital enters the market, Bitcoin may continue facing pressure from cautious investors, profit-taking activity, and a large portion of holders still sitting on unrealized losses.
