Bitcoin may be preparing for a significant recovery rally after a rare technical indicator—one that previously appeared only near the bottom of the 2022 FTX collapse—has surfaced again on the weekly chart. While short-term volatility remains elevated and bearish risks have not disappeared, analysts are increasingly focused on a bullish divergence that historically preceded one of Bitcoin’s strongest rallies ever.
The setup has reignited discussions about whether Bitcoin is approaching another major accumulation zone before the next leg higher.
Rare Weekly Bullish Divergence Returns
One of the most closely watched momentum indicators in technical analysis is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold.
Currently, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is showing an unusual pattern.
Although BTC prices have continued to make lower lows following their recent decline from approximately $75,700 to the $63,000 region, momentum has stopped falling at the same pace. Instead, the RSI has begun forming a higher low, indicating that selling pressure may be weakening despite continued price weakness.
This phenomenon is known as a bullish divergence.
A bullish divergence occurs when:
- Price continues moving lower.
- Momentum begins moving higher.
- Sellers lose control of the trend.
- Buying interest quietly begins returning.
Historically, this pattern often appears near major market bottoms before significant reversals occur.
What’s particularly noteworthy is how rare this signal has been for Bitcoin on the weekly timeframe.
The Last Time This Happened: After the FTX Collapse
The previous occurrence appeared during one of the darkest periods in crypto history.
Following the collapse of FTX in November 2022, Bitcoin plunged toward $15,500 amid widespread panic, insolvencies, and investor capitulation.
At the time, weekly RSI began strengthening even as Bitcoin’s price remained under pressure.
That bullish divergence ultimately marked the beginning of a historic recovery.
Over the following years, Bitcoin surged approximately 715%, climbing from around $15,500 to an all-time high near $126,000.
While no technical indicator guarantees a repeat performance, the reappearance of the same signal is attracting significant attention from traders and long-term investors.
Why the $90,000 Level Matters
If the bullish divergence plays out similarly to previous cycles, analysts are targeting several key resistance zones.
The first major upside objective sits near:
$91,700 – $92,000
This region aligns closely with Bitcoin’s:
- 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA)
- Historical recovery resistance zone
- Major technical trend level
y=91755
Historically, Bitcoin often encounters resistance around the 50-week moving average during early recovery phases before deciding whether a broader bull trend can resume.
A successful breakout above this level could significantly improve the long-term outlook.
Bitcoin Is Holding a Historically Important Support Zone
The bullish divergence becomes even more interesting because of where it is occurring.
Bitcoin is currently trading near its 200-week Simple Moving Average, one of the most important long-term support indicators in the market.
y=62000
This level has repeatedly acted as a major cycle bottom throughout Bitcoin’s history.
2015 Bear Market
Bitcoin found support near the 200-week SMA before beginning a multi-year recovery.
2018 Crypto Winter
The indicator again marked the final capitulation phase before the next bull market emerged.
2020 COVID Crash
Bitcoin briefly touched the 200-week SMA before launching one of the strongest rallies in its history.
Now, once again, Bitcoin is testing this same area.
Because of this historical significance, many analysts view the current zone as a long-term accumulation region rather than a place to panic sell.
Analysts Identify Key Breakout Levels
Popular market analyst Michael van de Poppe believes Bitcoin remains constructive as long as support around the 200-week SMA continues holding.
According to his analysis, bulls need to reclaim the:
Immediate Resistance Zone
- $64,000
- $65,000
If Bitcoin successfully breaks above that range, several additional upside targets come into focus:
Secondary Targets
- $71,500
- $73,000
CME Gap Target
- Approximately $79,000
Major Resistance
- Above $90,000
The $90,000 region continues to stand out as one of the most important levels if momentum strengthens further.
Bitcoin’s Bearish Scenario Has Not Disappeared
Despite the optimism surrounding the bullish divergence, analysts caution that Bitcoin is not yet out of danger.
A competing technical structure remains active on the chart.
The Bear Flag Pattern
Bitcoin recently broke below a multi-week rising channel that had formed after a sharp decline.
This pattern resembles a classic bear flag, which is traditionally viewed as a continuation signal during broader downtrends.
A bear flag forms when:
- Price experiences a sharp decline.
- A temporary recovery occurs inside an upward channel.
- The channel eventually breaks lower.
- A second decline follows.
Bitcoin has already moved into the breakdown phase of this formation.
Could Bitcoin Fall Below $50,000?
If the bear flag fully plays out, technical projections suggest Bitcoin could revisit levels below $50,000.
The measured move target from the pattern points toward:
Bearish Target Zone
- $48,000
- $50,000
This downside scenario remains valid unless Bitcoin can quickly reclaim the lower boundary of the broken channel and turn it back into support.
For that reason, traders remain cautious despite the improving momentum indicators.
Why This Setup Matters
The current market structure presents a fascinating battle between long-term bullish signals and short-term bearish pressure.
On one side:
✅ Weekly bullish divergence
✅ Historically strong 200-week SMA support
✅ Improving momentum indicators
✅ Similar setup to the post-FTX bottom
On the other:
⚠ Bear flag breakdown remains active
⚠ Bitcoin still trades below major resistance zones
⚠ Macroeconomic uncertainty remains elevated
⚠ Geopolitical risks continue impacting risk assets
This combination creates one of the most important technical crossroads Bitcoin has faced in recent months.
The Bigger Picture
Bitcoin’s latest setup is attracting attention because it combines two historically significant factors: a rare weekly bullish divergence and a retest of the 200-week moving average.
The last time this combination emerged, Bitcoin began a multi-year rally that delivered extraordinary gains.
While history does not guarantee identical outcomes, the signal suggests that seller exhaustion may be developing beneath the surface.
For bulls, the roadmap is clear: reclaim $64,000–$65,000, target $73,000, close the CME gap near $79,000, and eventually challenge the $90,000 resistance zone.
For bears, failure to hold current support could reopen the path toward $50,000 and extend the correction further.
As a result, the coming weeks could determine whether Bitcoin is quietly building the foundation for its next major advance—or simply preparing for one final capitulation before a new bull cycle begins.
Bitcoin Targets $90,000 as Rare FTX-Era Bullish Signal Reappears
Bitcoin may be preparing for a significant recovery rally after a rare technical indicator—one that previously appeared only near the bottom of the 2022 FTX collapse—has surfaced again on the weekly chart. While short-term volatility remains elevated and bearish risks have not disappeared, analysts are increasingly focused on a bullish divergence that historically preceded one of Bitcoin’s strongest rallies ever.
The setup has reignited discussions about whether Bitcoin is approaching another major accumulation zone before the next leg higher.
Rare Weekly Bullish Divergence Returns
One of the most closely watched momentum indicators in technical analysis is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold.
Currently, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is showing an unusual pattern.
Although BTC prices have continued to make lower lows following their recent decline from approximately $75,700 to the $63,000 region, momentum has stopped falling at the same pace. Instead, the RSI has begun forming a higher low, indicating that selling pressure may be weakening despite continued price weakness.
This phenomenon is known as a bullish divergence.
A bullish divergence occurs when:
- Price continues moving lower.
- Momentum begins moving higher.
- Sellers lose control of the trend.
- Buying interest quietly begins returning.
Historically, this pattern often appears near major market bottoms before significant reversals occur.
What’s particularly noteworthy is how rare this signal has been for Bitcoin on the weekly timeframe.
The Last Time This Happened: After the FTX Collapse
The previous occurrence appeared during one of the darkest periods in crypto history.
Following the collapse of FTX in November 2022, Bitcoin plunged toward $15,500 amid widespread panic, insolvencies, and investor capitulation.
At the time, weekly RSI began strengthening even as Bitcoin’s price remained under pressure.
That bullish divergence ultimately marked the beginning of a historic recovery.
Over the following years, Bitcoin surged approximately 715%, climbing from around $15,500 to an all-time high near $126,000.
While no technical indicator guarantees a repeat performance, the reappearance of the same signal is attracting significant attention from traders and long-term investors.
Why the $90,000 Level Matters
If the bullish divergence plays out similarly to previous cycles, analysts are targeting several key resistance zones.
The first major upside objective sits near:
$91,700 – $92,000
This region aligns closely with Bitcoin’s:
- 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA)
- Historical recovery resistance zone
- Major technical trend level
y=91755
Historically, Bitcoin often encounters resistance around the 50-week moving average during early recovery phases before deciding whether a broader bull trend can resume.
A successful breakout above this level could significantly improve the long-term outlook.
Bitcoin Is Holding a Historically Important Support Zone
The bullish divergence becomes even more interesting because of where it is occurring.
Bitcoin is currently trading near its 200-week Simple Moving Average, one of the most important long-term support indicators in the market.
y=62000
This level has repeatedly acted as a major cycle bottom throughout Bitcoin’s history.
2015 Bear Market
Bitcoin found support near the 200-week SMA before beginning a multi-year recovery.
2018 Crypto Winter
The indicator again marked the final capitulation phase before the next bull market emerged.
2020 COVID Crash
Bitcoin briefly touched the 200-week SMA before launching one of the strongest rallies in its history.
Now, once again, Bitcoin is testing this same area.
Because of this historical significance, many analysts view the current zone as a long-term accumulation region rather than a place to panic sell.
Analysts Identify Key Breakout Levels
Popular market analyst Michael van de Poppe believes Bitcoin remains constructive as long as support around the 200-week SMA continues holding.
According to his analysis, bulls need to reclaim the:
Immediate Resistance Zone
- $64,000
- $65,000
If Bitcoin successfully breaks above that range, several additional upside targets come into focus:
Secondary Targets
- $71,500
- $73,000
CME Gap Target
- Approximately $79,000
Major Resistance
- Above $90,000
The $90,000 region continues to stand out as one of the most important levels if momentum strengthens further.
Bitcoin’s Bearish Scenario Has Not Disappeared
Despite the optimism surrounding the bullish divergence, analysts caution that Bitcoin is not yet out of danger.
A competing technical structure remains active on the chart.
The Bear Flag Pattern
Bitcoin recently broke below a multi-week rising channel that had formed after a sharp decline.
This pattern resembles a classic bear flag, which is traditionally viewed as a continuation signal during broader downtrends.
A bear flag forms when:
- Price experiences a sharp decline.
- A temporary recovery occurs inside an upward channel.
- The channel eventually breaks lower.
- A second decline follows.
Bitcoin has already moved into the breakdown phase of this formation.
Could Bitcoin Fall Below $50,000?
If the bear flag fully plays out, technical projections suggest Bitcoin could revisit levels below $50,000.
The measured move target from the pattern points toward:
Bearish Target Zone
- $48,000
- $50,000
This downside scenario remains valid unless Bitcoin can quickly reclaim the lower boundary of the broken channel and turn it back into support.
For that reason, traders remain cautious despite the improving momentum indicators.
Why This Setup Matters
The current market structure presents a fascinating battle between long-term bullish signals and short-term bearish pressure.
On one side:
✅ Weekly bullish divergence
✅ Historically strong 200-week SMA support
✅ Improving momentum indicators
✅ Similar setup to the post-FTX bottom
On the other:
⚠ Bear flag breakdown remains active
⚠ Bitcoin still trades below major resistance zones
⚠ Macroeconomic uncertainty remains elevated
⚠ Geopolitical risks continue impacting risk assets
This combination creates one of the most important technical crossroads Bitcoin has faced in recent months.
The Bigger Picture
Bitcoin’s latest setup is attracting attention because it combines two historically significant factors: a rare weekly bullish divergence and a retest of the 200-week moving average.
The last time this combination emerged, Bitcoin began a multi-year rally that delivered extraordinary gains.
While history does not guarantee identical outcomes, the signal suggests that seller exhaustion may be developing beneath the surface.
For bulls, the roadmap is clear: reclaim $64,000–$65,000, target $73,000, close the CME gap near $79,000, and eventually challenge the $90,000 resistance zone.
For bears, failure to hold current support could reopen the path toward $50,000 and extend the correction further.
As a result, the coming weeks could determine whether Bitcoin is quietly building the foundation for its next major advance—or simply preparing for one final capitulation before a new bull cycle begins.
