Bitcoin slipped back below $80,000 after stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data prompted traders to increase bets on tighter Federal Reserve policy. The decline also followed repeated rejection near the $82,500 resistance zone, leaving traders focused on whether BTC can defend support around $78,000 or regain the momentum needed for another breakout attempt.
- Bitcoin traded around $79,600 after reaching an intraday high near $81,370.
- U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, while unemployment remained at 4.1%.
- Key technical levels include resistance near $82,500 and 4-hour Supertrend support around $78,190.
- Large liquidation clusters around $80,000, $82,000 and $78,000 could amplify Bitcoin’s next move.
Bitcoin Retreats Below $80,000
Bitcoin lost ground after briefly extending its recent recovery above the $82,000 level.
Data at the time showed BTC trading around $79,600, representing a decline of approximately 1.5% over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency had climbed to roughly $81,370 before sellers pushed it down to an intraday low near $78,723.
The latest decline came after Bitcoin had rallied from the August range near $62,500, gaining roughly 30% during the recovery.
That advance allowed BTC to break through several previous lower highs and reach its strongest level since May. However, the cryptocurrency has struggled to establish a sustained move above the $82,000-$82,800 area.
The daily chart places immediate resistance around $82,504, close to the previous May swing high.
Bitcoin’s inability to clear that zone has now become an important test of whether the recent recovery can develop into a broader continuation move.
Strong US Jobs Report Changes Rate Expectations
The latest pullback was accelerated by stronger U.S. employment figures.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that American employers added 162,000 nonfarm jobs in August, substantially above the average monthly increase of 31,000 recorded over the previous year.
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.
Food services and drinking establishments added approximately 59,000 positions, while local government education employment increased by about 42,000. The information sector, meanwhile, shed roughly 23,000 jobs.
The stronger labor-market data prompted traders to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Market-implied odds of a Fed rate increase at the Sept. 15-16 meeting reportedly climbed to 61%, up from 52% before the employment report.
Citigroup subsequently pushed its forecast for the Fed’s next rate cut from October 2026 to June 2027.
Higher expectations for interest rates also supported the U.S. dollar and lifted Treasury yields, creating a less favorable environment for non-yielding and higher-risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Analyst Rain argued that the employment report was the immediate catalyst for the decline but noted that Bitcoin had already encountered technical resistance.
According to the analyst, BTC was rejected around $82,400 several hours before the jobs figures were released, suggesting that the market was already showing signs of exhaustion.
$82,500 Remains the Key Technical Level
Bitcoin’s technical indicators present a mixed picture.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood around 66.28, below the traditional overbought threshold of 70. The indicator had moved above 70 during the recent rally but subsequently turned lower as Bitcoin struggled to break through resistance.
That suggests bullish momentum has cooled without yet entering clearly bearish territory.
The Aroon indicator remains more constructive. Aroon Up was approximately 85.71%, compared with just 7.14% for Aroon Down, indicating that recent highs remain significantly more influential than recent lows.
On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin remained above the Supertrend indicator near $78,190.
That makes the $78,000-$78,200 region the first important support zone. As long as BTC remains above it, the short-term technical structure retains a bullish bias.
The four-hour Chaikin Money Flow reading was also positive at approximately 0.19, suggesting that buying pressure remained present over the indicator’s measurement period.
A decisive daily close above $82,504 would weaken the current rejection pattern.
A confirmed breakout could bring the broader May resistance around $82,793 into play. If Bitcoin clears that region convincingly, the next potential targets could include $90,000, followed by the 2026 high near $97,867.
Conversely, losing the four-hour Supertrend could shift attention toward $77,000, with additional support around $75,700 and $71,800.
Liquidation Clusters Could Amplify the Next Move
Bitcoin’s derivatives market is also highlighting important levels on both sides of the current price.
The one-week CoinGlass liquidation heatmap shows a significant concentration of leveraged positions around $80,000. Another sizeable cluster sits between approximately $81,800 and $82,300.
That positioning creates the potential for a rapid move toward the upper liquidity zone if Bitcoin regains $80,000 and begins pushing higher.
However, liquidation heatmaps represent estimated concentrations of leveraged positions rather than guaranteed price targets.
On the downside, another substantial cluster is located around $78,000, with additional liquidity concentrated between approximately $76,000 and $77,000.
A decisive break below $78,000 could trigger liquidations among leveraged long positions and potentially accelerate Bitcoin’s decline toward the lower liquidity bands.
This leaves BTC positioned between two important areas of leveraged exposure: roughly $78,000 on the downside and $82,000 on the upside.
A breakout through either zone could therefore produce a sharper-than-normal short-term move.
Analysts Warn of a Potential Bull Trap
Some traders remain cautious despite Bitcoin’s broader recovery.
Trader Gerla noted that Bitcoin’s market structure has improved but warned that momentum has repeatedly weakened after the daily RSI approached or entered overbought territory during the current cycle.
The analyst identified $82,000-$84,000 as a critical zone for invalidating the bearish scenario.
A strong daily close above that range, particularly if accompanied by significant trading volume, would make the argument for a bull trap considerably weaker.
Until then, another rejection could potentially force leveraged traders to close positions and increase selling pressure.
Inflation Data Is the Next Major Catalyst
The next major macroeconomic test arrives with the release of the August U.S. Consumer Price Index on Sept. 11, just five days before the Federal Reserve’s scheduled policy decision.
The inflation report could have a significant influence on interest-rate expectations.
A hotter-than-expected CPI reading could strengthen expectations for tighter monetary policy, potentially placing additional pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
A softer inflation number could have the opposite effect by reducing rate-hike expectations and giving BTC another opportunity to challenge the $82,500 resistance zone.
For now, Bitcoin remains caught between strong macroeconomic headwinds and a still-constructive technical structure. The $78,000 support area and $82,500 resistance level are likely to remain the most important short-term markers for determining the direction of the next major move.
