BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes remains highly bullish on Bitcoin, arguing that BTC could reach $1 million by 2030. Yet despite that long-term conviction, Hayes currently favors Ethereum, which he believes offers a more attractive risk-reward opportunity and could potentially rise three- to fivefold.
Hayes Sees Bitcoin Moving Toward $1 Million
Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin has the ingredients necessary for a major long-term rally and could eventually reach $1 million by 2030.
Speaking on the Trade Secrets podcast, Hayes pointed to several potential catalysts, including a possible collapse of the artificial-intelligence investment boom, aggressive monetary expansion and the possibility of the United States adopting some form of yield-curve control.
In his view, these factors could create an environment in which liquidity increasingly flows toward scarce assets such as Bitcoin.
Hayes also suggested that Bitcoin’s previous decline toward approximately $58,000 may have represented a major market bottom, with the cryptocurrency now positioned for a gradual recovery.
His forecast contrasts sharply with the assessment of 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen. Thielen recently argued that a $1 million Bitcoin valuation by 2030 would be extremely difficult to achieve because reaching that level would require an enormous amount of additional capital entering the market within only a few years.
The disagreement illustrates how differently analysts interpret Bitcoin’s future liquidity requirements and potential institutional demand.
Ethereum Is Hayes’ Top Crypto Pick
Despite his bullish Bitcoin outlook, Hayes currently sees Ethereum as the most attractive major cryptocurrency investment.
His argument is largely based on valuation and upside potential.
Hayes believes Ethereum could potentially deliver a three- to fivefold increase relatively quickly, giving it a more compelling risk-reward profile than some of the other large-cap digital assets he follows.
He highlighted Ethereum’s position as a foundational network for decentralized finance and argued that the asset has been overlooked by investors.
One factor he considers particularly important is Ethereum’s distance from its previous cycle peak.
While Bitcoin has already established new highs during the current market cycle, Ethereum has yet to decisively surpass its 2021 all-time high.
Hayes therefore sees a potential catch-up opportunity.
His thesis is not that Ethereum is guaranteed to outperform Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. Rather, he believes the market’s relatively negative sentiment toward ETH could create greater upside if investor interest returns.
Hyperliquid No Longer Offers the Same Asymmetry
Hayes has also become less enthusiastic about Hyperliquid’s HYPE token.
He acknowledged the strength of the Hyperliquid ecosystem but argued that much of its potential is now widely recognized by the market.
In his view, Hyperliquid was particularly attractive when its growth and potential were less understood. With the project now receiving considerably more attention, expectations have increased along with its valuation.
That does not mean Hayes expects HYPE to decline.
Instead, he believes the opportunity cost has changed.
For capital managed by his investment firm Maelstrom, Hayes currently sees better potential elsewhere in the speculative cryptocurrency market.
Ethereum, in particular, appears to offer what he considers a stronger combination of established infrastructure, large market capitalization and potential upside.
Hayes Downplays Trump’s Influence on Bitcoin
Hayes also pushed back against the idea that U.S. President Donald Trump directly determines cryptocurrency prices.
While Trump’s administration has taken a more crypto-friendly stance and has discussed initiatives involving digital assets, Hayes argued that investors should pay greater attention to the institutions responsible for monetary and financial policy.
He pointed toward the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve and other monetary authorities as more important influences on liquidity and asset prices.
Hayes also questioned how much political capital the administration would be prepared to spend advancing major cryptocurrency legislation, particularly when other domestic issues may have greater importance to voters.
His comments suggest that he views monetary conditions and government financial policy as substantially more important to Bitcoin’s price trajectory than individual political statements.
BitMEX Shutdown Marks the End of an Era
Hayes also discussed the decision to shut down BitMEX, the crypto derivatives exchange he co-founded in 2014.
The exchange has announced plans to cease operations on Sept. 23, giving customers a deadline to close positions and withdraw funds.
Rather than viewing the closure negatively, Hayes said he was satisfied that BitMEX could end its operations voluntarily and on its own terms.
He characterized the decision as preferable to being forced out of the market by a security breach or other external event.
According to Hayes, the economics of operating a cryptocurrency exchange have also become considerably more difficult.
Competition has intensified, while maintaining secure infrastructure, technology and data-center capacity has become increasingly expensive.
He believes only exchanges operating at enormous scale can comfortably absorb those costs, making the sector far more challenging for smaller competitors.
Ethereum Emerges as Hayes’ Preferred Opportunity
Hayes’ current investment preference ultimately comes down to relative upside.
He remains convinced that Bitcoin has the potential to reach seven figures over the next several years, but he believes Ethereum may offer greater near-term appreciation from current levels.
His thesis rests on several factors:
- Ethereum remains a major foundation for DeFi.
- ETH has lagged Bitcoin’s recent performance.
- Investor sentiment toward Ethereum remains comparatively weak.
- Ethereum has not decisively exceeded its 2021 peak.
- A shift in market sentiment could produce significant catch-up demand.
Hayes therefore sees ETH as a stronger destination for additional capital than Hyperliquid at current valuations.
The broader message from Hayes is not that Bitcoin has lost its appeal. Instead, he sees Bitcoin as the long-term monetary asset with potential for a $1 million valuation, while Ethereum currently offers what he considers the more attractive risk-reward setup. If liquidity conditions become significantly more favorable for crypto, Hayes believes both assets could benefit but Ethereum may have more room to catch up.
